Market demands proof from AI

The tech rally paused: Nasdaq 100 futures fell by 1%, and S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.2%. Pressure came from weak reports at Alphabet and Samsung: Google shares plunged by 10% after revenue missed expectations, and Samsung lost 4% on lower profits and no new shareholder payout program. Microsoft and Oracle gained on strong cloud service outlooks and robust cash flow guidance. Investors are now focused on upcoming reports from Amazon and Apple.

The Fed kept interest rates steady as expected, which pushed US Treasury yields down and bond prices up. Today, markets are also watching the ECB interest rate decision and fresh US inflation data, with the Bank of Japan meeting on the calendar for tomorrow. Gold and Bitcoin weakened as Treasuries regained safe-haven demand. Brent eased to about $113.90/bbl amid diplomatic efforts to reduce tensions around Iran. Follow the link for more details.

Fed holds rates but prepares markets for December hike

The Federal Reserve left policy rates unchanged, as expected. Chair Kevin Warsh made clear, however, that the Fed is concerned about re-accelerating inflation and does not rule out further tightening as soon as December. That backdrop is supporting the dollar, pressuring equity futures, and weighing on gold and silver.

Markets will now watch incoming economic releases, especially inflation gauges. A rise in the PCE price index would validate Fed concerns, likely adding pressure to equities and precious metals while bolstering the dollar. Traders are already pricing in a meaningful chance of a December rate move. Stronger-than-expected data would push those odds higher and deepen downside risk for stocks. Follow the link for more details.

Strategy at crossroads: Bitcoin loses support

Strategy Holdings owns 848,517 BTC at an average cost of about $75,446. At current prices near $80,000, the position shows roughly $4 billion of paper profit, but recent weakness has already cost the firm about $3 billion on new purchases. Spot ETF holders are adding pressure: their average entry is around $81,500, making that level a potential resistance zone.

Crucially, Strategy has temporarily paused Bitcoin purchases and redirected funds to buy back its preferred shares (STRC). That's a worrying signal for the market: the largest corporate buyer may be prioritizing balance sheet needs over accumulation. Forced selling is not yet expected, but a cautious tone in Strategy's report could amplify downside. If Bitcoin falls below Strategy's cost basis of $75,446, investor attention will shift to the firm's reserves and its ability to continue buying. Follow the link for more details.